In the Annual Threat Assessment of the Director of National Intelligence to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, J. Michael McConnell says that the Balkans will be "unsettled in 2008" because of the independence drive by the Kosovo Albanians.

"We judge that the Balkans will remain unsettled in 2008 as Kosovo’s drive for independence from Serbia comes to a head and inter-ethnic relations in Bosnia worsen," says McConnell.

Kosovo is a Serbian province ruled by Muslim Albanian separatists that have vowed violence if their demands for independence are not met by the international community.

"A delay in independence could provoke a violent response from embittered Kosovo Albanian extremists," says McConnell.

McConnell notes that NATO intervention in the province is a possibility after Kosovo separatists declare independence and any violence inside Kosovo will spill over into neighboring states.

However, McConnell warns that even if the status of Kosovo is resolved in favor of the separatists, the Albanian ethnic minorities living in Macedonia and southern Serbia are likely to continue "pressing for greater autonomy" which will be used by extremist Albanians to initiate violence there.

"[E]thnic Albanian extremists will attempt to exploit public discontent and use small-scale violence to rally support for unification with Kosovo," says McConnell.

The assessment notes that Serbia "will not intervene with the Serbian Army in Kosovo" but political and economic responses against Kosovo separatist will hinder any economic development of the province.

By referring in his early remarks to the Fort Dix terror plot organized by ethnic Albanian Muslims, McConnell indicated that these European Muslims will increasingly be used by the al-Qaeda to launch attacks inside the United States.

"A group of European and Arab Muslim immigrants arrested last May for planning to attack Fort Dix, New Jersey, used a group
member's familiarity with the US Army base to determine their target," notes McConnell.

The assessment notes that the plot was thwarted in its nascent stage but the al-Qaeda sophistication will improve as these Islamic militants increasingly rely on "the internet to identify and connect with networks throughout the world".

Recently, a Bosnian Muslim was arrested for managing such internet network.

The assessment also notes that Bosnia itself may enter a period of political crisis in 2008 as Muslims there nurture fundamental differences with the Bosnian Christian majority comprised of Serbs and Croats.

"The international community presence in Bosnia is set to decline further in 2008. We judge the probability of interethnic violence is low absent a move by Bosnia's Serb entity, the Republika Srpska, toward secession," concludes McConnell.

On the Internet:
http://intelligence.senate.gov/080205/mcconnell.pdf

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